Before you invest yourself in polls, take the time to go back and read what the same pundits were saying in the last midterm of 2002. Check out: The assessments of August and see if any of this sounds familiar:

"Their Democratic counterparts are talking more optimistically... A recent Gallup Poll showed 50% of registered voters were more likely to vote for Democrats, 42% for Republicans."

"Strategists in both parties say that while congressional elections depend heavily on local issues and trends, the war on terrorism and Bush's hands-on effort in many races have made him an issue, too."

"From all indications, this fall's midterm elections should confirm the Judis-Teixeira thesis... They could win back the House on Nov. 5 and are favored to win key governorships. For the Democrats, happy days may be here again."

As we know, 2002 turned out to be a very good year for Bush and the Republicans.

To be fair, Bush had higher approval ratings in 2002 than now. At the same time, gas prices were $2 rather $3 a gallon. Iraq is obviously a drag. Illegal immigration is red hot and many Republicans are very angry with Bush!

Nevertheless, why is Michael Barone, a great political analyst, saying that the winds are blowing in Bush's direction now. The answer is events rather than any one particular issue. Check out A change in the winds:

"When asked what would affect the future, the British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan famously said: Events, dear boy. Events. The event this month that I think has done most to shape opinion was the arrest in London on Aug. 9 of 23 Muslims suspected of plotting to blow up American airliners over the Atlantic."

What this plot confirms is that there are bad people in the world and they want to kill Americans. Furthermore, they are not selective. They want to kill those who voted for Bush as much as for those who voted for Kerry:

"They've been trying to kill us for years, going back at least to 1983, when a Hezbollah suicide bomber killed 241 American servicemen in Lebanon. Then they attacked the World Trade Center, the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and the USS Cole in Aden -- all while Bill Clinton was president. Sept. 11 woke us up to the threat. The political acrimony of 2004 and 2005 and this year made it seem remote. The London arrests reminded us its still there."

I am not saying that Bush is in and Democrats are out. This is going to be a tough midterm, as it has been for every president in his 6th year in office.

However, the London plot shows us that the threat is real. Again, back to Barone:

"The arrests were a reminder that there still are lots of people in the world -- and quite possibly in this country, too -- who are trying to kill as many of us as they can and to destroy our way of life. They are not unhappy because we havent raised the minimum wage lately or because Bush rejected the Kyoto Treaty or even because were in Iraq." 

MY VIEW by Silvio Canto, Jr.