Posted by
Silvio Canto, Jr. on Monday, October 23, 2006 4:50:03 PM
It's October 15th and here goes my prediction: The Republicans will hold the House and Senate.
I will put my money on Karl Rove.
Nevertheless, some of my favorite pundits are a bit gloomy. The Power Line posted this Why the sea of blue? Fred Barnes wrote How Bad Will It Be? See Just How Doomed Is the GOP? By Jay Cost. He was very accurate in the past and does not believe that there will be a Dem blow out.
Rove is optimistic. Check out White House Upbeat About GOP Prospects By Michael Abramowitz of The Washington Post:
"Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats -- shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush's second term."
What will happen on election day? I stand by my predictions that the Republicans will hold their majorities. Why? As a practical matter, 95% of incumbents will be reelected. Over the years, people have told pollsters that they hate Congress but love their congressman.
See Incumbency is clear winner in House midterms By Donald Lambro:
"While voter approval of Congress has plunged to 32 percent in the wake of the lobbying and congressional-page scandals, a Washington Post-ABC News poll of voters last week found that at least 60 percent liked and supported their representatives.
"The old adage that voters hate Congress but love their congressman continues to ring true. Incumbents are hard to beat," said Jonathan Collegio, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee."
Are people going to throw out their Congressman? I don't think so.
On other issues, the US economy is doing fine. (See Anyone keeping up with the economy)
The Democrats' biggest enemy is their leadership, such as Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. They have pushed the party so far to the left that it makes no sense. The Democrats would be in for sure if their leaders sounded like Zell Miller and Scoop Jackson. See Their intoxicating power lost, Dems now only complain by JOHN REINIERS:
"In these fast moving and complex times, it is sad and strange that the Democrats have no centrist leader- just one dynamic person who can rally them. Howard "the scream" Dean, Harry Reid, Henry Waxman, and Nancy Pelosi are so divisive and so far to the left, it is surprising they don't fall over."
Last but not least, there is turnout and discipline. The Republicans have a wonderful vote turnout machine and it always shows up on election day. See The New York Times Democrats Have Intensity, but G.O.P. Has Its Machine:
"The Republican machine was on full display last weekend in Ohio, where volunteers worked phone banks in all 88 counties on what the party called Super Saturday. They contacted 100,000 carefully selected potential Republican voters and knocked on the doors of 50,000. When the day was done, Jason Mauk, the political director for the state party, said, “I think that really discredits the notion that Republican voters and volunteers are not energized.”
Will it work in 2006? Do you think that Republicans will stay home because of Mark Foley? I don't see that.What we have is a tight ball game. The Dems are leading 2-1 after 7 innings. Is it over? They are trailing now but the game is not over yet.
The Republicans will hold their majorities. My money is on Karl Rove. I have never lost money betting on Karl Rove. I'm willing to give him another chance.